Addressing the sample size problem in behavioural operational research: simulating the newsvendor problem

Laboratory-based experimental studies with human participants are beneficial for testing hypotheses in behavioural operational research. However, such experiments are not without their problems. One specific problem is obtaining a sufficient sample size, not only in terms of the number of participants but also the time they are willing to devote to an experiment. In this paper, we explore how agent-based simulation (ABS) can be used to address the sample size problem and demonstrate the approach in the newsvendor setting. The decision-making strategies of a small sample of individual decision-makers are determined through laboratory experiments. The interactions of these suppliers and retailers are then simulated using an ABS to generate a large sample set of decisions. With only a small number of participants, we demonstrate that it is possible to produce similar results to previous experimental studies that involved much larger sample sizes. We conclude that ABS provides the potential to extend the scope of experimental research in behavioural operational research

Expansion of CD4+CD25+ helper T cells without regulatory function in smoking and COPD

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Regulatory T cells have been implicated in the pathogenesis of COPD by the increased expression of CD25 on helper T cells along with enhanced intracellular expression of FoxP3 and low/absent CD127 expression on the cell surface.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Regulatory T cells were investigated in BALF from nine COPD subjects and compared to fourteen smokers with normal lung function and nine never-smokers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In smokers with normal lung function, the expression of CD25⁺CD4⁺was increased, whereas the proportions of FoxP3⁺and CD127⁺were unchanged compared to never-smokers. Among CD4⁺cells expressing high levels of CD25, the proportion of FoxP3⁺cells was decreased and the percentage of CD127⁺was increased in smokers with normal lung function. CD4⁺CD25⁺cells with low/absent CD127 expression were increased in smokers with normal lung function, but not in COPD, when compared to never smokers.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The reduction of FoxP3 expression in BALF from smokers with normal lung function indicates that the increase in CD25 expression is not associated with the expansion of regulatory T cells. Instead, the high CD127 and low FoxP3 expressions implicate a predominantly non-regulatory CD25⁺helper T-cell population in smokers and stable COPD. Therefore, we suggest a smoking-induced expansion of predominantly activated airway helper T cells that seem to persist after COPD development.</p

The Waiting Time for Inter-Country Spread of Pandemic Influenza

BACKGROUND: The time delay between the start of an influenza pandemic and its subsequent initiation in other countries is highly relevant to preparedness planning. We quantify the distribution of this random time in terms of the separate components of this delay, and assess how the delay may be extended by non-pharmaceutical interventions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The model constructed for this time delay accounts for: (i) epidemic growth in the source region, (ii) the delay until an infected individual from the source region seeks to travel to an at-risk country, (iii) the chance that infected travelers are detected by screening at exit and entry borders, (iv) the possibility of in-flight transmission, (v) the chance that an infected arrival might not initiate an epidemic, and (vi) the delay until infection in the at-risk country gathers momentum. Efforts that reduce the disease reproduction number in the source region below two and severe travel restrictions are most effective for delaying a local epidemic, and under favourable circumstances, could add several months to the delay. On the other hand, the model predicts that border screening for symptomatic infection, wearing a protective mask during travel, promoting early presentation of cases arising among arriving passengers and moderate reduction in travel volumes increase the delay only by a matter of days or weeks. Elevated in-flight transmission reduces the delay only minimally. CONCLUSIONS: The delay until an epidemic of pandemic strain influenza is imported into an at-risk country is largely determined by the course of the epidemic in the source region and the number of travelers attempting to enter the at-risk country, and is little affected by non-pharmaceutical interventions targeting these travelers. Short of preventing international travel altogether, eradicating a nascent pandemic in the source region appears to be the only reliable method of preventing country-to-country spread of a pandemic strain of influenza

The National Lung Matrix Trial of personalized therapy in lung cancer

The majority of targeted therapies for non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are directed against oncogenic drivers that are more prevalent in patients with light exposure to tobacco smoke1,2,3. As this group represents around 20% of all patients with lung cancer, the discovery of stratified medicine options for tobacco-associated NSCLC is a high priority. Umbrella trials seek to streamline the investigation of genotype-based treatments by screening tumours for multiple genomic alterations and triaging patients to one of several genotype-matched therapeutic agents. Here we report the current outcomes of 19 drug–biomarker cohorts from the ongoing National Lung Matrix Trial, the largest umbrella trial in NSCLC. We use next-generation sequencing to match patients to appropriate targeted therapies on the basis of their tumour genotype. The Bayesian trial design enables outcome data from open cohorts that are still recruiting to be reported alongside data from closed cohorts. Of the 5,467 patients that were screened, 2,007 were molecularly eligible for entry into the trial, and 302 entered the trial to receive genotype-matched therapy—including 14 that re-registered to the trial for a sequential trial drug. Despite pre-clinical data supporting the drug–biomarker combinations, current evidence shows that a limited number of combinations demonstrate clinically relevant benefits, which remain concentrated in patients with lung cancers that are associated with minimal exposure to tobacco smoke

Well-being outcomes of marine protected areas

Marine protected areas are advocated as a key strategy for simultaneously protecting marine biodiversity and supporting coastal livelihoods, but their implementation can be challenging for numerous reasons, including perceived negative effects on human well-being. We synthesized research from 118 peer-reviewed articles that analyse outcomes related to marine protected areas on people, and found that half of documented well-being outcomes were positive and about one-third were negative. No-take, well-enforced and old marine protected areas had positive human well-being outcomes, which aligns with most findings from ecological studies. Marine protected areas with single zones had more positive effects on human well-being than areas with multiple zones. Most studies focused on economic and governance aspects of well-being, leaving social, health and cultural domains understudied. Well-being outcomes arose from direct effects of marine protected area governance processes or management actions and from indirect effects mediated by changes in the ecosystem. Our findings illustrate that both human well-being and biodiversity conservation can be improved through marine protected areas, yet negative impacts commonly co-occur with benefits

Subcellular localization of type-I thionins in the endosperms of wheat and barley.

Thionins are cysteine-rich polypeptides of about 5,000 Da. Localization at the subcellular level of type I endosperm thionins has been carried out by immunogold labeling, using an antibody that recognizes type I thionin variants. In developing wheat and barley caryopses, sectioned at different times between 13 and 24 days after flowering, this type of thionins was only detected around protein bodies from cells of the starchy endosperm, using light microscopy. Electron microscopy revealed that these proteins were located in electron-dense spheroids in the periphery of protein bodies, at the earlier stages, whereas later the label appeared also as a thin layer around these organelles

Genome-Wide Analysis of Subependymomas Shows Underlying Chromosomal Copy Number Changes Involving Chromosomes 6, 7, 8 and 14 in a Proportion of Cases

Subependymomas (SE) are slow-growing brain tumors that tend to occur within the ventricles of middle-aged and elderly adults. The World Health Organization classifies these tumors within the ependymoma group. Previous limited analysis of this tumor type had not revealed significant underlying cytogenetic abnormalities

Glaciotectonic deformation associated with the Orient Point–Fishers Island moraine, westernmost Block Island Sound : further evidence of readvance of the Laurentide ice sheet

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Geo-Marine Letters 32 (2012): 279-288, doi:10.1007/s00367-012-0296-9.High-resolution seismic-reflection profiles collected across pro-glacial outwash deposits adjacent to the circa 18 ka b.p. Orient Point–Fishers Island end moraine segment in westernmost Block Island Sound reveal extensive deformation. A rhythmic seismic facies indicates the host outwash deposits are composed of fine-grained glaciolacustrine sediments. The deformation is variably brittle and ductile, but predominantly compressive in nature. Brittle deformation includes reverse faults and thrust faults that strike parallel to the moraine, and thrust sheets that extend from beneath the moraine. Ductile deformation includes folded sediments that overlie undisturbed deposits, showing that they are not drape features. Other seismic evidence for compression along the ice front consists of undisturbed glaciolacustrine strata that dip back toward and underneath the moraine, and angular unconformities on the sea floor where deformed sediments extend above the surrounding undisturbed correlative strata. Together, these ice-marginal glaciotectonic features indicate that the Orient Point–Fishers Island moraine marks a significant readvance of the Laurentide ice sheet, consistent with existing knowledge for neighboring coeval moraines, and not simply a stillstand as previously reported.This work was supported by the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection, and the Atlantic Hydrographic Branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.2013-06-2